Estimate Prepayment Speeds

BancLab’s SecuritizationInsight model forecasts voluntary and involuntary prepayment speeds for small business loan securitizations. Both poolers and investors typically rely on aggregate market statistics to make investment decisions. However, aggregate statistics cannot capture the unique risk profile of each pool, nor do they factor in the impact of changing macroeconomic conditions on prepayment and default rates.

SecuritizationInsight uses a multi-factor regression model, which encompasses borrower and loan characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions, to project prepayment speeds for securitized pools. SecuritizationInsight draws from BancLab’s rich dataset of more than 1 million small business loans, 460,000 prepayments, and nearly 170,000 defaults dating back over two decades.

BancLab has enhanced SecuritizationInsight to reflect changes to the SBA’s Secondary Market Guaranty (SMG) program, and we continue to update the model with our ongoing assessments of prepayment penalty impacts.

If you'd like to learn more about SecuritizationInsight, or any of our products, contact us.